Chinese Cable “Volcano” Prepares to Erupt: What It Threatens for the Global Market
Imagine a huge cauldron in which thousands of tonnes of cable have been boiling under enormous pressure for many years. The lid is closed, but the pressure is building so much that soon it will simply not hold. This is exactly what is happening today with China’s cable industry, and according to experts, the outburst of this energy will inevitably change the balance of power on the global market.
On 12 March, within the framework of the Second Russian-Chinese Scientific and Technical Conference on the Cable Industry, analysts presented a report that gives pause for thought. China has long become the “world’s cable factory.” Not many people know, but the cable sector in the structure of China’s machine‑building industry holds an honourable second place, second only to the automotive industry. This is a veritable “backbone” of Chinese industry.
But here is what is interesting: the era when China simply stamped huge quantities of inexpensive cable (2002–2012) is gone. The country has made a qualitative leap. Now it is not just a supplier of raw materials, but a dictator of standards in the field of energy transition. It is enough to look at the global ranking: out of the ten largest cable companies in the world, five are Chinese. And they control the entire chain – from copper mining to the most complex installation of extra‑high‑voltage systems.
Inside China itself, since 2018, harsh jungle laws have been in effect. The market is no longer fragmented; the principle of “polarisation” operates here:
- The strong become super‑strong, aggressively absorbing competitors’ shares.
- The small survive only through unique innovations.
- The weak disappear – inefficient plants are closed en masse.
This internal “involution” (or, in Chinese, “neijuan”) creates colossal overstrain. Profits inside the country are falling, there are too many capacities, and this “volcano” is looking for a way out. For Russian and European manufacturers, this is a signal: get ready for a tsunami of dumping prices and fierce competition from Chinese giants for every international tender. They simply need to compensate for low margins at home through external expansion.
It is interesting that the Chinese are now pressing not with quantity but with quality. An analysis of the trade balance for 2020–2024 shows astonishing “scissors”: imports into China have decreased physically (in tonnes), but in monetary terms they are not falling as sharply. This means that expensive imports are being replaced by their own technologies. At the same time, exports in monetary terms are growing faster than in tonnage. That is, China is no longer shipping cheap commodity cable abroad – now it is selling expensive, certified engineering solutions and even entire intelligent network management systems.
The conclusion of the conference speakers is unequivocal: competing with China in the old way will no longer work. The only chance to stay afloat is to move from a model of confrontation to deep technological cooperation. China has already become the determining player in the electrical engineering market, and those who fail to understand this risk being left behind in the global energy transition.
